With the final plan for One Community One Goal complete and our economic road map clearly set, the real work of growing and diversifying our economy can now begin. It’s time to roll up our sleeves, walk the walk and take One Community One Goal from a great plan to an even better reality for our hometown. That means sticking to our plan, aiming for our goals, and measuring our successes in real terms from here forward.

My vision for Miami-Dade County is to position our community as one of the most attractive places in the world for investors, corporations and entrepreneurs, and the One Community One Goal initiative is helping to move in that direction.

Getting to this point has been a team effort and making sure all hands are on deck going forward will be critical to reaching our goals. Government, educators, non-profits and the private sector all have an important role to play.

You can count on Miami-Dade County government to do its part. We’re making sure that our regulatory environment encourages private sector growth, whether it’s helping start- ups get on their feet; guiding out-of-town investors through the permitting processes; or providing existing businesses the tools they need to grow.

Our role in making the One Community One Goal initiative a success goes beyond creating a business-friendly environment. We also happen to run the two largest economic engines in Miami-Dade County: Miami International Airport (MIA) and PortMiami. Combined, they support more than 350,000 jobs and have an economic impact of close to $40 billion.

In a very concrete way, both facilities will underpin the job-creation efforts that we aim to achieve through this initiative. If you’ve been following the news lately, you know that these industry leaders continue making big moves.

Click here to read the full article.

The Beacon Council, which leads the One Community One Goal effort, presented the last in the report’s four-part series, with recommendations outlined in 113 pages.

The goal: Create jobs, boost investment and economic development and elevate Miami-Dade to world-class status.

“The mission of One Community One Goal is to create jobs and lower the unemployment rate” said Alexandra Villoch, co-chair of One Community One Goal and senior vice president/advertising and marketing at The Miami Herald Media Company. “With the new One Community One Goal strategic plan we want to make sure that we diversify our local economy so that we reduce these drastic ups and downs as much as possible.”

Hundreds of community leaders in business, education and government attended the kick-off event at Miami Dade College’s Wolfson campus to herald the next step: implementation of the plan.

Focusing on Miami-Dade’s private and public education is among the top themes.

“To succeed, we have to have education,” said Adolfo Henriques, co-chair of One Community One Goal and president of Gibraltar Bank. “Education is the foundation from which we are building our targeted industries.”

More than 5,000 people have participated in creating the strategic plan, leading to 80 recommendations, said Amy Holloway, president of Avalanche Consulting, one of two consulting firms that drafted the reports. It is the second One Community One Goal project in 15 years, updating one from 1998.

The latest project first highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of Miami-Dade’s economy, then identified target industries for economic development and educational initiatives. The seven industries selected were aviation; creative design; hospitality and tourism; information technology; international banking and finance; life sciences and health care, and trade and logistics.

Providing a plan of action is next, reflecting a shared vision, with community-wide cooperation and an aim of economic diversification.

“Miami-Dade needs to build its brand identity as a business destination,” Holloway said. That’s going to require $15 million for a global public relations and marketing campaign, she said.

Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos A. Gimenez, who also co-chairs One Community One Goal, said it is “time to roll up our sleeves,” to make the project “a roadmap” for the community’s future.

He pointed to Miami International Airport and PortMiami as key generators of job growth.

“We have the people, resources and tools we need to make One Community One Goal more than just a study,” Gimenez said. “As long as I am at the helm of the county, I assure you we will make One Community One Goal our priority.”

Click here to read the full article.

“We look forward to teaming up with Avalanche Consulting to identify target industry sectors and strategies that will increase jobs and investment in our community,” said Emily Crawford, Executive Director of the Brownwood EDC.

Avalanche Consulting’s principals, Amy Holloway and Chris Engle, have worked with more than 100 economic and workforce development organizations, including recent projects with The Beacon Council in Miami-Dade County, Florida; JAX Partnership in Jacksonville, Florida; and Lowcountry SC Economic Alliance in South Carolina, among others. Since Avalanche’s founding six years ago, the firm’s clients have generated over $3 billion in new capital investment and thousands of jobs for residents.

Brownwood Economic Development Corporation is the City of Brownwood’s official economic development entity. It is a non-profit organization that focuses on job creation and economic growth by providing assistance to current and prospective businesses.

Click here to download this press release.

Starting Avalanche Consulting in 2005 after 10 years as a strategist and executive at other consulting firms, Holloway says, “I knew I needed a wealth of experience before opening my own shop. The field of economic development strategic planning is a niche sector of consulting.”

Noting that there are few people in the country who are true experts on the subject, Holloway explains Avalanche Consulting’s boutique approach to the abundant services it offers.

“I formed Avalanche so I can take a personal role in each project,” she says. “I wanted to start a firm that could work with progressive communities willing to let us take a highly creative approach in helping them revive their economies.”

Helping communities create jobs and business investments, Avalanche Consulting spends six to eight months working with a community to evaluate their economic situation, identify target audiences for future growth and craft a detailed action plan to create a more competitive place for jobs and investments.

Click here to read the full article in NSIDE Magazine

Unfortunately, yes.  We have witnessed the largest outflux of workers from the labor force in my lifetime (at least), like no other previous recession. Avalanche Consulting wanted to assess the true condition of the labor force not in terms of how many people are “choosing” to look for work (and captured in government surveys), but in terms of how many jobs we historically need to support our population base.  We calculated unemployment in terms of actual jobs to working-age population (25-64 years of age).  This ratio has held remarkably steady over the last 30 years.  All other ratios that we looked at (such as the labor force participation rate, or workers as a percent of the population) are steadily declining, which would be expected as our population grows older and we have fewer workers as a percent of the total.  But surprisingly, our preferred measure has held quite constant: we’ve needed 9.2 jobs for every 10 adults of working age (a seemingly high number, but it includes workers of age above or below the 25-64 year range). Thirty years of data show this consistently—until the recent recession when it fell to 8.5 and fell much faster than any other ratio we examined.

So, if 9.2 jobs per 10 working-age adults is the “right” level of jobs needed to support our population, how bad is the current unemployment picture?

Click here to read the full article in Trade & Industry Development Magazine

Perception of federal government policies improved slightly, but a majority of economic developers (58%) still believe federal policies are currently poor.  According to the survey respondents, the best policies for today’s economy are decreasing regulation, job creation incentives, reducing government and/or taxes, tax reform, and entrepreneurship incentives.  Economic developers also called for a renewed focus on manufacturing and the policies required to bring the industry back to the U.S.

The survey also asks respondents to indicate whether their prospect activity increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the second half of 2011 versus the first half (see a definition of prospect activity at the end of this release).  Fifty percent (50%) of economic developers indicated an increase in prospect activity, which is a slight decrease from the previous survey.  This reflects a moderating rate of prospect growth as activity returns to its pre-recession levels.  Although the upward trend of strong growth has reversed, the gap between announcements and leads has shrunk as more projects come to fruition.  Project size continues its upward trend, as 44% of economic developers said their average project size increased in terms of square footage, investment, jobs, and payroll.  The top 5 industries showing the most improvement in prospect activity industry in the second half of 2011 were: Manufacturing, Health Care Services, Clean Energy, Distribution, and Food Processing.

Definition of Prospect Activity

Prospects are companies that are considering an expansion/relocation and are competitively evaluating multiple cities as part of their decision.  Economic development organizations often assist these companies with their information needs, site and building search, workforce assessments, and/or financing and incentives.  Prospects are flagged as various types as they move through the decision process:

Lead – A company makes an initial request for information or indicates that an expansion/relocation decision process has begun.

• Prospect – A formal “Request for Proposals” is usually sent, which includes the requirements for the project expansion/relocation.
• Visit – A community is short-listed and company representatives visit multiple communities to gather and confirm information.
• Announcement – A company makes a decision and issues a public statement announcing the winning community for the company’s expansion/relocation.

The survey also asks economic developers to indicate whether “Startups/Ventures” and “Closures/Layoffs” increased or decreased.

The Economic Developers Index is a bi-annual survey of U.S. economic developers to gauge changes in prospect activity and perceptions of the economy.  While other surveys exist to measure sentiment of businesses or consumers, this survey is focused on economic developers, who have unique insights on the future of job creation in U.S. communities.

In January 2012, about 190 qualified responses were collected for the survey, which was the 6^th consecutive survey conducted.  The survey is done by Avalanche Consulting as a free service to the economic development community.  Only survey respondents and the media are provided copies of the complete report.

http://www.EconomicDevelopersIndex.com

Click here to download this media release.

The One Community One Goal step was spectacular — not its targets, but its methodical process to achieve more and higher-paying jobs that build on Miami’s unique strengths for quality long-term growth.

If we don’t craft and then follow a roadmap to jobs, a cockamamie idea is as good as anything, and is likely to grab the spotlight and suck up vital resources until the next gimmick surfaces. Success becomes random.

Focus can change that, leveraging our unique opportunities to build jobs that fit Miami and pointing us toward both excellence and full, well- paying employment.

I’ve long said I’d support any studied plan that wins broad community buy-in for a long-term jobs push. The seven targets coming out of the 55 One Community One Goal partner teams fill that bill.
Not that there’s a thing wrong with the targets. They are a solid springboard culled from everything we have to offer that can differentiate us from the pack. Importantly, the list bears the “Miami” brand.

Still, my “spectacular” label does not attach to the categories — aviation, creative design, hospitality & tourism, information technology, international banking & finance, life sciences & health care, and trade & logistics — but the process itself, plus the fact that within each category we specify niches. Only via niches can we rifle in on the right targets.

Thursday’s unveiling of targets was without fanfare at the headquarters of the Beacon Council, the county’s jobs-creation partnership that spawned this second round of One Community One Goal.
A 1990s effort spearheaded by the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce also developed workmanlike goals. Some aims succeeded; tracing success back to the goals team was harder.
A key difference now must be in follow-through to turn aspirations into an ongoing, adequately funded taskforce in the game for the long haul using — as University of Miami President Donna Shalala reminded the group — metrics to measure success.

Without the roadmap, we can hail any outcome at all, even if it creates few or low-paying jobs.
Without a gameplan — to be unveiled May 7 — the roadmap is a mere aspiration.
Without broad community buy-in, frictions will soon slow the plan to a crawl.
And without government aboard and its money fueling the plan, private efforts won’t advance as far as this job-challenged community needs.

Pivotally, County Mayor Carlos Gimenez is among the effort’s three co- chairmen. He noted that the plan to enact the study must be realistic, with all stakeholders at the table.
That President Shalala, Florida International University President Mark Rosenberg and many other high-ranking educators were at the table last Rosenberg and many other high-ranking educators were at the table last week was a link missing in the 1990s.

In that early effort education came as an afterthought. This time, school
and college competencies are pivotal, because attributes of their graduates determine what jobs we can realistically expect to create and grow.

Indeed, Beacon Council CEO Frank Nero told the group he had just returned from a New York recruiting mission. The first question by his prospects: what are Miami’s educational competencies?
Not that Miami wouldn’t add jobs without a gameplan. We add them daily, mostly via entrepreneurs in small business, which is Miami’s economic backbone. Jobs they add collectively can, in good years, outstrip anything a targeted job-creation effort could bring.

Click here to read the full article in Miami Today.

Click here to download the full Report.

New analysis by Avalanche Consulting, a national economic planning firm, reveals that the “true” rate of unemployment is 12.1% – 3.6 percentage points higher than reported last Friday – and that an additional 5.4 million unemployed discouraged workers are missing from federal labor force estimates.  This is the first recession in decades to experience the phenomenon of large swaths of people choosing to leave the labor force.

These estimates are derived by using the long-term ratio of employment to working-age population to calculate the “right” level of employment and the level of “true unemployment”. The team at Avalanche Consulting pulled 20 years of labor force and population data from our proprietary Headlight data system, which uses data from numerous federal agencies.

Major Findings:

• The labor force and unemployment rate estimates published by the US Department of Labor depend on the number of people who say they want a job and are looking for one.  Because discouraged workers who stopped looking for jobs aren’t included in the labor force (and are hard to measure), the reported unemployment rate may not tell the true unemployment story for the US.

• The labor force participation rate is one measure that is typically used to show the natural rate of employment in the US.  The labor force participation rate (available workers as a % of the population aged 16 or higher) peaked in 1997 at 67.2%, but has experienced a slow decline over the past decade.

• To determine the right level of employment (and unemployment) for the US economy, we use a better measure:  the ratio of jobs per population of working age (25-64 years).  Using this ratio (which has held more constant than any other over the last 20 years), the actual gap in jobs in the US economy yields 18.7 million unemployed persons with a true unemployment rate of 12.1%.  This is 5.4 million persons and 3.6 percentage points higher than reported.

• Our unemployment rate estimate is not like the alternative measures of unemployment reported by the Department of Labor, which includes people who work part-time but want full-time work, discouraged workers, and people who are “marginally attached” to the labor force.  Unfortunately, these measures don’t vary much from their long-term averages (multiples above the reported rate) whether we are in a recession or not.

• Because we compare employment to population, we believe that our current unemployment data provides a clearer estimate of the number of discouraged workers, and therefore actual unemployment in the US today.

All supporting charts and data can be found in the downloadable Economic Brief.

What is the outlook for 2012?  “Understanding the past and present situation is critical so that we can make better decisions going forward”, said Chris Engle, Vice President of Avalanche Consulting.  “Sizing up the economy affects decisions across every part of the US: government policy decisions, career planning decisions, investment decisions, and overall consumer sentiment.  The outlook for 2012 is getting brighter:  most indicators are trending in the right direction.  However, we must recognize that the economy has been scarred and that millions of people are no longer part of the productive labor force.“

“Every level of government – federal, state, and local – must be geared toward accelerating the recovery given lower levels of labor force participation and a large disenfranchised worker base,” said Mr. Engle.  “Policies could include creating the business climate and incentives for the private sector to create jobs, encouraging adult workers to retrain in high-demand skills, and ensuring students are ready for the workforce when they graduate.  The rewards will be large with the right policies:  our job growth rate could be twice our long-term rate once the economy gets in full swing if we set the proper foundation for the private sector to create jobs.”

Economic activity continued to accelerate in the first half of 2011.  All survey respondents indicated more growth than declines with the strongest increases occurring in expansion prospects, suggesting that the economy continues to rebound.  The most telling statistic is the 5:1 ratio of increases vs. decreases in economic activity.  This statistic marched ahead further to its highest point ever (this figure includes prospect activity and announcements).

Despite these gains in the first half of 2011, economic developers indicated lower expectations for the second half of 2011.  Only 47% of economic developers believe prospect activity will increase in the second half, a large drop from 58% in the previous survey.  Furthermore, 14% of economic developers believe the national economy will be worse or much worse in 12 months, a jump from 3%.  Still, 37% believe the U.S. economy will be better and 50% believe it will be the same.

Economic developers are increasingly negative about federal economic policies.  Zero percent say federal policies are “good” and 76% say policies are “poor”.  However, views on state and local policies are more positive: 30% of economic developers believe their state policies are good while 43% said policies by their local governments are good.

Click here to download this media release.

The region lags the nation in job creation, but opportunities for growth exist. Further, a wide majority of the 530 residents surveyed support more funding for economic development.
The study, which will be delivered to the Lowcountry Economic Alliance today, is the first of a three-phase analysis local leaders hope will create a framework for growth.

Staff from two consulting firms — Avalanche Consulting of Austin, Texas, and McCallum Sweeney of Greenville — unveiled the data Thursday during a conference call with alliance officials and community leaders.

Conversations centered around strengths, weaknesses and perceptions of the local economy. Survey-takers gave the Lowcountry a C-minus for its economic performance over the past five years.
But Avalanche president Amy Holloway said Beaufort and Jasper counties are lagging the national average, at least in terms of employment.

Click here to read the full article in the Beaufort Gazette.